SHFE Tin Breaks Through the 280,000 Mark Strongly, Supply-Demand Tight Balance Supports Prices Fluctuating at Highs [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of October 9, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract performed strongly, closing the morning session at 286,470 yuan/mt with an intraday gain of over 2%. The contract opened today at 280,200 yuan/mt, significantly higher than the previous session's closing price, and once climbed to a high of 286,530 yuan/mt during the session, showing a positive momentum driven by bulls. In the overseas market, although the LME three-month tin contract closed down 0.33% at $36,250/mt overnight, LME tin overall showed a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise during the National Day holiday, with inventory levels remaining at historically low levels, providing support for prices.

From a supply and demand fundamental perspective, the tight supply situation has not yet been effectively alleviated. The Indonesian government continues to rectify small mines and restrict the export of primary tin products, further exacerbating the global supply deficit. Domestically, several smelters have reduced capacity due to insufficient raw material supply, and some plants have extended equipment maintenance cycles, leading to a further reduction in domestic refined tin output in September. On the demand side, there is a structural divergence: orders in the traditional consumer electronics sector remain weak, but demand in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors is strong, with the rapid development of the global AI server market driving a multiplier increase in demand for tin-based solder required for high-end chip packaging processes. The accelerated electrification of new energy vehicles has also boosted tin usage in automotive electronic components, with incremental demand from these emerging sectors partially offsetting the decline in traditional demand.

From a macro perspective, the ongoing US government shutdown continues to ferment, intensifying market risk-off sentiment, while the minutes from the US Fed's September meeting revealed divisions among officials regarding the monetary policy path, leading to rising market expectations for interest rate cuts and increased volatility in the US dollar index. Domestically, National Day holiday consumption data showed resilience, injecting warmth into the economic fundamentals, and market liquidity remained ample; these factors collectively provided macro support for tin prices. Overall, SHFE tin maintains its strength driven by supply constraints and demand boost from emerging sectors. The afternoon trend warrants attention to fund flows and the spot market's acceptance of high prices, with short-term expectations for it to hover at highs.